MD 0299 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0299
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Tue Apr 07 2020
Areas affected...Portions of northern West Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 072306Z - 080030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A lone supercell is in progress across northern West
Virginia, which is expected to persist for at least a few more
hours, with large hail being the main threat. A few very large (2+
inch) stones are possible. The storm may begin to gradually weaken
as it begins to outpace the instability axis.
DISCUSSION...A mature supercell is currently moving across Doddridge
County, West Virginia, with a 40 kft top, and 60+ dBZ extending past
the -20C layer. As such, severe hail may be occurring with this
storm, with some significant severe hail possible. This supercell is
associated with a subtle, embedded mid-level impulse which is
currently propagating around the synoptic-scale ridge in place.
Associated with this ridge is an EML plume and steep mid-level lapse
rates exceeding 7 C/km, with the eastward most extent of this plume
emanating into West Virginia. While MLCAPE has remained modest (i.e.
500-1000 J/kg), effective bulk shear values exceeding 40 knots has
promoted storm organization and mid-level rotation amidst cold
temperatures aloft (-17 C at 500 mb), hence the severe hail
potential.
However, the airmass gradually becomes less stable with eastward
extend, and with nocturnal stabilization expected in the next few
hours, a gradual weakening trend is expected, as supported by some
of the latest high-resolution model guidance.
..Squitieri.. 04/07/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 39307975 39127949 38937954 38767965 38677989 38778049
38978096 39208121 39498123 39628073 39307975
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2IqHoHu
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