MD 0299 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0299 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0549 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019 Areas affected...North-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 102249Z - 110045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A few severe storms capable of mainly damaging hail may develop after 00Z. DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to deepen across central KS, and will track northeastward into southeast NE this evening. The synoptic setup overall is quite favorable for severe storms with steep lapse rates aloft, strong wind profiles, and lift. However, moisture is a major concern. GPS PW sensors indicate values approaching 0.60" near Wichita, but a band of relatively greater PW does exist near the stationary/developing warm front from near Kansas City into southeast NE. Recent visible imagery and radar shows skeletal convection forming near Russell KS as of 23Z, ahead of the low. The zone from here northeastward appears to have the greatest chance of severe storms capable of large hail. Supercells are possible, either elevated, or, surface based right along the front, with an enhanced risk of damaging hail. While low-level moisture is a concern, a conditional tornado risk still exists given favorable storm mode, steep lapse rates, lift along the boundary, and increasing low-level SRH. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 39549925 40579892 41179839 41459749 41549664 41429611 41179581 40779564 40369561 40119570 39989596 39889631 39789661 39589706 39269752 38859810 38749852 38799876 39079914 39549925
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2IqHoHu
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