SPC MD 299


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Mesoscale Discussion 0299
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0549 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

Areas affected...North-central Kansas into southeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 102249Z - 110045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe storms capable of mainly damaging hail may
develop after 00Z.

DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to deepen across central KS,
and will track northeastward into southeast NE this evening. The
synoptic setup overall is quite favorable for severe storms with
steep lapse rates aloft, strong wind profiles, and lift. However,
moisture is a major concern. GPS PW sensors indicate values
approaching 0.60" near Wichita, but a band of relatively greater PW
does exist near the stationary/developing warm front from near
Kansas City into southeast NE.

Recent visible imagery and radar shows skeletal convection forming
near Russell KS as of 23Z, ahead of the low. The zone from here
northeastward appears to have the greatest chance of severe storms
capable of large hail. Supercells are possible, either elevated, or,
surface based right along the front, with an enhanced risk of
damaging hail. While low-level moisture is a concern, a conditional
tornado risk still exists given favorable storm mode, steep lapse
rates, lift along the boundary, and increasing low-level SRH.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/10/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   39549925 40579892 41179839 41459749 41549664 41429611
            41179581 40779564 40369561 40119570 39989596 39889631
            39789661 39589706 39269752 38859810 38749852 38799876
            39079914 39549925 

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