MD 0318 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN KS…NORTHEASTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0318 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Areas affected...Eastern/southeastern KS...northeastern OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241900Z - 242100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the next few hours. Some of these storms will be capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Convective trends will be monitored closely for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals a dryline moving eastward across central KS, roughly extending from CNK southward to very near WLD and continuing southward through central OK. Recent radar and satellite imagery have shown attempts at more robust convection along the dryline over north-central OK (Kay, Pawnee, and Osage counties) and far south-central KS (Cowley and Butler counties). However, updrafts have remained weak thus far, likely a result of warm mid-level temperatures and subsequent weak instability. Low-level moisture will continue to gradually increase ahead of the dryline with recent satellite imagery also suggesting there will be enough clearing for modest diurnal heating. Thunderstorms are expected to develop as the forcing for ascent provide by the dryline and approaching upper low interact with this more unstable environment. Shear profiles are supportive of rotating storms with the cool temperatures aloft suggesting the threat for some severe hail. A couple damaging wind gusts are also possible, particularly with any well-developed thunderstorms clusters. Trends across the region will be monitored closely for possible watch issuance. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/24/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 37339693 38389698 39409711 39279575 38509507 37699496 36249528 36249679 37339693
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