MD 0355 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 106… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0355 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Areas affected...Portions of central MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 106... Valid 121840Z - 122015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 106 continues. SUMMARY...Severe potential should be maximized across parts of central MS this afternoon. This continues to include the possibility of strong tornadoes. DISCUSSION...A small cluster moving into central MS may be transitioning to a supercell, with echo tops approaching 50,000 ft. Yet another TDS has recently been observed with this convection in Yazoo County, MS. The airmass downstream of this activity remains quite favorable for organized, severe convection. The 18Z sounding from JAN shows a very strong and veered wind profile in the low levels in association with a 60-70+ kt low-level jet. The low-level inversion observed around 850 mb is expected to continue eroding as ascent associated with both the low-level jet and an approaching mid-level trough overspread this region. A meso-low has also been observed from 18Z surface analysis over far southeastern AR and northwestern MS. Surface winds are locally backed to east-southeasterly along a marine warm front extending eastward from this low across parts of northern/central MS. A relatively confined corridor of greater severe potential is apparent this afternoon across parts of central MS, generally to the east of the ongoing cluster/supercell and south of the northward-advancing warm front. Across this area, a sufficiently unstable airmass coupled with very strong low and mid-level shear will continue to support the potential for tornadoes with any storms that can form/be sustained. Some of these tornadoes could be strong given the ample low-level shear. A threat for damaging winds and perhaps some large hail also exists. ..Gleason.. 04/12/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN... LAT...LON 32909063 33349014 33498949 33428848 32818848 32408855 32258931 31999098 32909063
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2Xq6de2
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