MD 0369 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA…NORTHWEST ARKANSAS…SOUTHWEST MISSOURI…SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0369 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...Northwest Arkansas...Southwest Missouri...Southeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 291951Z - 292215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop over the next couple of hours across southeast Kansas, far northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri. Initially, wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible as cells strengthen but a tornado threat could develop by late afternoon. WW issuance will likely be needed across the region, potentially by 21Z. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1002 mb low over southeast Kansas with a warm front extending east southeastward from the low across southwest Missouri. A corridor of low-level moisture exists along the warm front where surface dewpoints are near 60 F. Surface warming has been slow today along and south of the front but RAP data suggests that instability has started to increase more over the last hour or so. MLCAPE values are now estimated to be approaching 500 J/kg across the MCD area. In addition, low-level convergence has increased over the last couple of hours along the warm front which has resulted in convective initiation across east-central Kansas. Other storms are expected to initiate along the warm front in southern Missouri and further south in northwest Arkansas over the next hour or two. Concerning the environment, a 70 to 85 kt mid-level jet is analyzed across eastern Oklahoma with the exit region into far southeast Kansas. This feature was enhancing lift and creating strong deep-layer shear which will be favorable for severe storm development. Initially, short line segments and discrete cell clusters may produce isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. As cells mature late this afternoon, supercells with a tornado threat should develop especially with storms that can interact with the warm front in southwest Missouri. A severe threat is also possible southward across far northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas especially as lift increases due to a strengthening low-level jet. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38539491 38659562 38549615 38299643 37909649 37409616 36509542 35429499 35239439 35339367 36369220 37399222 37859283 38339420 38539491
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1Ef3ENq
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