SPC MD 385


MD 0385 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0385
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CDT Fri May 11 2018

Areas affected...Southeast NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 110613Z - 110745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for a possible downstream watch
over portions of southeastern NE.

DISCUSSION...Organized MCS continues to progress across at around
35-40 kt. Severe wind gusts have been measured over the past hours,
the strongest of which was 78 mph in Kearney country. Strong to
severe winds gusts are expected to continue for at least the next
hour or so as the MCS approaches the edge of Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 81. Echo tops have decreased slightly over the past 15 mins
and the overall thermodynamic environment does not appear favorable
for continued persistence of the current MCS intensity. KUEX radar
imagery also clearly shows the outflow out ahead of the stronger
convection. That being said, the well-organized nature of the system
coupled with continued warm-air advection across the frontal zone
draped across region may compensate for the marginal thermodynamics.
Additionally, stationary front across the region will likely enhance
the potential for strong to severe gusts in its vicinity. Trends
will be monitored closely over the next hour and a downstream watch
may be needed over portions of southeastern NE if severe gusts

..Mosier/Edwards.. 05/11/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   40969735 41219737 41399714 41489681 41479654 41409624
            41149602 40659589 40349586 40059627 40139723 40399739

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