MD 0385 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 0385 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Fri May 11 2018 Areas affected...Southeast NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 110613Z - 110745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for a possible downstream watch over portions of southeastern NE. DISCUSSION...Organized MCS continues to progress across at around 35-40 kt. Severe wind gusts have been measured over the past hours, the strongest of which was 78 mph in Kearney country. Strong to severe winds gusts are expected to continue for at least the next hour or so as the MCS approaches the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 81. Echo tops have decreased slightly over the past 15 mins and the overall thermodynamic environment does not appear favorable for continued persistence of the current MCS intensity. KUEX radar imagery also clearly shows the outflow out ahead of the stronger convection. That being said, the well-organized nature of the system coupled with continued warm-air advection across the frontal zone draped across region may compensate for the marginal thermodynamics. Additionally, stationary front across the region will likely enhance the potential for strong to severe gusts in its vicinity. Trends will be monitored closely over the next hour and a downstream watch may be needed over portions of southeastern NE if severe gusts persist. ..Mosier/Edwards.. 05/11/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 40969735 41219737 41399714 41489681 41479654 41409624 41149602 40659589 40349586 40059627 40139723 40399739 40969735
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1tDB8wS
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