MD 0387 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0387
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2020
Areas affected...Central/Eastern Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 142048Z - 142245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts or a brief
tornado/waterspout will be possible with storms moving near and
onshore this afternoon and evening. A weather watch is not
anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Echo tops of 35-40kft from the KTLH radar suggest an
increase in intensity with a couple of the offshore cells south of
the Florida Big Bend region. Weak upper level lift from a passing
shortwave trough has overspread this region. Partial clearing across
the Florida Panhandle and a seasonably moist boundary layer with
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s are supporting MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. This unstable airmass is overlain by effective shear of 40 kts
sampled from regional VWPS. Mid-level mesocyclones have been
observed with a few of the cells and environmental parameters
support continued strengthening and maintenance of updrafts through
this afternoon and evening. A few of the stronger storms will be
capable of damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado as they move
onshore and across parts of the central/eastern Florida Panhandle.
Instability wanes farther to the north across southern Georgia.
Limited certainty on the coverage and intensity of the severe threat
suggests a weather watch is unlikely.
..Lyons/Grams.. 04/14/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 29968573 30098574 30378530 30468479 30528442 30568371
30478308 29768276 29548343 29958402 29658466 29518515
29738556 29968573
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