SPC MD 39

MD 0039 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GA

Mesoscale Discussion 0039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle into southern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 271616Z - 271815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging wind and perhaps a brief
tornado will continue late this morning and potentially into this
afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...At 16Z, a band of convection is ongoing from
south-central GA into the FL Panhandle and northern Gulf of Mexico.
The southern portion of this band has intensified over the last
hour, as indicated cooling cloud tops noted in IR imagery and a
recent increase in lightning activity.  The primary large-scale
ascent remains displaced well to the northwest across the mid-MS
Valley in association with a shortwave midlevel trough, but weak
low-level warm advection will continue to focus convection near and
south of a weak surface boundary across northern FL/far southern GA.
While low-level flow is relatively weak and veered along/south of
the boundary, effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support
at least transient organization with the strongest storms, with a
primary threat of isolated damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief
tornado. 

The main limiting factor for the severe threat will continue to be
weak instability. The greatest relative threat may in the next 1-2
hours over the FL Panhandle, where MLCAPE is as high as 500 J/kg per
recent mesoanalyses. Widespread cloudiness downstream into the
northern FL Peninsula and far southern GA will continue to limit
destabilization, and the longevity of the severe threat into this
afternoon remains uncertain. As a result, watch issuance remains
unlikely.

..Dean/Hart.. 01/27/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30058560 30718462 31118392 31258296 31178271 30848254
            30508300 30088385 29878433 29618490 29708538 29918553
            30058560 

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