MD 0405 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN KS…SOUTHEAST NE…NORTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018 Areas affected...Northern KS...Southeast NE...Northwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 140100Z - 140330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Convection is expected to increase this evening, with the strongest cells capable of isolated severe hail. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have rapidly intensified to the southwest of KHYS over the last 30 hour, to the north of ongoing activity across southwest KS and just to the south of a surface cold front. Additional strong convection has recently developed over far southeast NE, to the north of a weak surface boundary. An increasing low-level jet will likely result in an increase in convection this evening, with at least isolated instances of large hail possible given very steep lapse rates, large buoyancy, and marginally supportive effective shear of 25-35 kt, as noted in regional 00Z soundings. The need for watch issuance is uncertain at this time, given that the primary severe threat in this regime is expected to be in the short term, between the southernmost surface boundary and primary cold front approaching from the north, where near-surface-based updrafts are possible. Elevated convection will likely continue into the late evening, but increasingly unfavorable storm modes will likely tend to limit the hail risk overnight. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/14/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39119967 39349970 39819944 40119843 40459685 40539540 40549475 40219439 39779422 39389427 39089530 38919628 38789715 38689857 39119967
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2rGcYGX
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