MD 0418 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0418 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019 Areas affected...Parts of north central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 220015Z - 220145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity capable of producing small hail and a few strong wind gusts may persist, and possibly increase some, for a period this evening. However, overall, the threat still appears marginal enough that a severe weather watch will not be needed. DISCUSSION...Ongoing small, but sustained cluster of thunderstorms has accelerated some while advancing east-northeastward during the past couple of hours, from near 20 to around 30 kt. Activity has been mostly post-cold frontal, aided by mid-level cooling and sufficient boundary layer moisture to contribute to CAPE locally up to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep layer wind fields and shear are mostly modest to weak, but initially steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates have been sufficient to support mainly small hail and a few strong wind gusts. It remains unclear how much longer this activity will maintain strength as it spreads near/to the south and east of Hill City. It seems possible that it may weaken as the cold front overtakes the dryline and supports the initiation of new thunderstorm activity downstream, around the Hays, Russell, Smith Center and Beloit vicinities. It is possible that shear associated with strengthening southerly 850 mb flow across this region could aid organization of consolidating new development. But any associated severe wind threat probably will be limited by the onset of boundary layer cooling, which likely will result in an increasingly marginal thermodynamic environment for vigorous convection. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39949884 40019749 39509668 38279797 38069948 38480001 39429953 39949884
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2PmQaYv
Be First to Comment