MD 0458 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105…106… FOR MUCH OF KANSAS…FAR EASTERN COLORADO…AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0458 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018 Areas affected...Much of Kansas...far eastern Colorado...and far southern Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 105...106... Valid 190355Z - 190500Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 105, 106 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WWs 105 and 106, although this threat appears to be on the wane. Isolated instances of severe wind and hail remain possible through at least 04Z across western Kansas, and 05Z across central Kansas. DISCUSSION...The overall severe threat has diminished some across WWs 105 and 106 over the past hour or so due to a couple of influences: 1) nocturnal boundary layer stabilization, and 2) widespread convective overturning. Nevertheless, one persistent linear segment continues across northwestern Kansas currently and will have a threat for damaging wind gusts for the next hour or so. Given ongoing destabilization, portions of WW 105 in effect for these areas may be allowed to expire at its originally scheduled time (04Z). Farther south, isolated thunderstorms have redeveloped from southwest Kansas southward into the Texas Panhandle. Although low-level stabilization has occurred across these areas, steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to sustain elevated storms and a few instances of large hail may still occur. Farther east, an extensive line of storms extending from near Russell to just west of Wichita continued to propagate eastward into a weakly to moderately unstable airmass (MUCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg). An isolated damaging wind threat should continue through the originally scheduled expiration time of WW 106 (07Z), and some hail threat will exist with more cellular convection developing on the southern flank of this linear MCS across far southern Kansas and extreme northern Oklahoma. ..Cook.. 05/19/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 36930025 37030055 37480105 37960184 38500190 39000209 39270222 39780228 40090192 40260133 40320037 40359944 40309894 39979841 39379783 38819729 38299691 37839679 37449672 37099696 36939745 36849827 36859913 36930025
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2Guw2NW
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