MD 0463 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS…NORTHWEST MISSOURI…FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0463 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018 Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri...far southeast Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191842Z - 192115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form by 20-21Z, and a watch may be needed for hail, wind, and a tornado or two. DISCUSSION...A cold front is currently progressing across central KS, while a leading wind shift dissipates along a MHK to HUT line. Visible imagery shows widespread heating now, in the wake of the earlier convection with cirrus finally existing northeast KS. As a result, temperatures are steadily rising through the mid to upper 70s F, with expanding CU fields. Boundary layer moisture quality is questionable given the previous overturning of the air mass, however, lapse rates aloft are quite steep, and will support severe storms. Weak low-level flow beneath 50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow is resulting in primarily straightline hodographs. However, any backing or strengthening of the low-level flow due to pressure falls could easily support supercells. Storms may initiate near the cold front around SLN/CNK, and perhaps along the stationary front to the north, initially cellular and possibly evolving into an MCS as they approach northwest MO into southern IA. ..Jewell/Weiss.. 05/19/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38619778 39209780 39689756 40029696 40209640 40469537 40439479 40029432 39209429 38949490 38339713 38619778
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