MD 0471 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018
Areas affected...eastern Kansas/western and central Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 200542Z - 200815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Persistent thunderstorms are expected overnight, possible
in several different episodes. Local/large hail is expected with
the strongest cells over the next several hours.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a small cluster of convection
over extreme southeast Kansas -- moving eastward toward central
Missouri, with more widespread/weaker convection developing across a
larger portion of eastern Kansas and into western and central
Missouri. The convection is slightly elevated, likely increasing in
response to a moderate south-southwesterly low-level jet and
associated warm advection/isentropic ascent.
While mid-level westerly flow remains rather modest (around 30 kt),
very steep lapse rates (as observed by the evening SGF RAOB) are
contributing to moderate elevated instability (on the order of 2500
J/kg). Thus, while shear would suggest only weakly rotating storms,
the amount of available instability suggests continued/persistent
storms with the strongest cells capable of producing hail generally
in the 1" to 1.75" range over the next several hours.
..Goss/Guyer.. 05/20/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37019505 37409537 38219517 38829463 39239348 38959215
38509164 37739181 36969288 36779438 37019505
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2pj1Cpu
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