MD 0495 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123… FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR…NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN TX…AND WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR...NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
TX...AND WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123...
VALID 291446Z - 291615Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LACK OF A CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS WW 123 WILL ALLOW THIS WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 15Z. ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED STORMS THAT RECENTLY FORMED IN NORTHEAST TX TO NORTHWEST LA
WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL WATCH
CONSIDERATIONS.
DISCUSSION...AT 1430Z...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE
MCS MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS AR...WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS LOCATED
ON THE SOUTHEAST LEADING EDGE IN JEFFERSON AND BRADLEY COUNTIES. THE
S/SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...SUGGESTING THE MCS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...WHILE IR IMAGERY SHOWED A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE MCS.
MEANWHILE...RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE WAA
ATTENDANT TO THE S/SWLY LLJ. GIVEN THE FORECAST WEAKENING OF THIS
LLJ AND TRENDS IN THE HRRR INDICATING THIS NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD PERSIST...YET NOT INCREASE IN INTENSITY SUGGESTS A NEW WW IS
NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
DOWNSTREAM INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN MS FOR ANY INCREASE IN STORM
INTENSITY AND SEVERE THREAT. THE 12Z SHV SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR FAVORING HAIL PRODUCTION WITH
THE STRONGEST CELLS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 34079448 35079312 35019114 34559035 33179078 32589142
32039222 31569313 31599369 32449437 33209486 34079448
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1caZSby
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