MD 0050 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0050 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0912 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 Areas affected...north FL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 010312Z - 010515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated risk for locally damaging winds may develop with a line segment as it moves across north FL through 1230am EST. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic imagery as of 10pm EST shows a line segment moving east from the eastern FL Panhandle into the northern part of the FL Peninsula. Surface analysis indicates temperatures will likely hold steady in the upper 60s F with dewpoints in the lower 60s F ahead of the line segment. Recent radar trends have shown a maintenance of higher echo tops as the band of storms gradually organizes. The 00z Tallahassee and Jacksonville raobs showed a deep moist layer from the surface to 700 mb and a weak inversion was noted above the moist layer around 700 mb per the Jacksonville raob. Lapse rates within the lowest 3 km will remain modest with 500 J/kg MLCAPE objectively analyzed over north FL. It is possible a slow but slight intensification of the line segment will occur over the next 1-2 hours as an upper vorticity maxima over the central Gulf Coast approaches the region. It is unclear whether a threat for damaging gusts will develop but the environment will conditionally support a risk dependent on storm-scale processes. The overall severe risk appears too isolated/marginal to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Smith/Guyer.. 02/01/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30358289 30718167 30008132 29658184 29798308 30358289
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