MD 0503 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST-CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0503
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020
Areas affected...West-central coastal areas of Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 300401Z - 300530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong/damaging wind gusts may impact the immediate
west-central coast of Florida. The Tampa/Sarasota corridor will be
impacted by 1-130 AM EDT. The isolated wind-damage threat should
diminish quickly as storms move inland.
DISCUSSION...A line of strong thunderstorms is approaching the
west-central coast of Florida. Ahead of this line, dewpoints have
risen along the immediate coast over the past hour or two. Though
warm air aloft was observed on the 00Z TBW sounding, modest cooling
of the mid-level profile will occur as the synoptic wave digs
slightly southward through the overnight. Both of these factors will
contribute to MLCAPE values of around 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg.
Farther inland, temperatures are a bit cooler and the low-level
airmass drier. The expectation is that a narrow corridor of
strong/damaging wind gusts may occur as the line move onshore, with
the potential for and intensity of wind gusts diminishing as storms
progress inland. Cloud tops on IR satellite imagery have warmed
slightly over the past half hour; however, the strongest portion of
the line appears to be moving in the direction of the Tampa/Sarasota
corridor and will arrive around 1-130 AM EDT. The threat is expected
to be both marginal and isolated. No WW is anticipated.
..Wendt/Edwards.. 04/30/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...
LAT...LON 28308326 28748313 28878280 28798253 28358229 27368227
27128264 27528300 28098328 28308326
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2VOsj8H
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