MD 0506 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO
Mesoscale Discussion 0506
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020
Areas affected...eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 301736Z - 301900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong storms capable of marginally severe hail and
gusty downdraft winds will be possible across portions of the
intermountain west this afternoon. Limited storm coverage suggest a
weather watch is not likely at this time.
DISCUSSION...Lift from an upper-level shortwave trough and a 50 to
60 kt jet is helping to destablize the atmosphere across the
intermountain west this morning/afternoon. Current visible satellite
data shows a deepening trend with agitated towering cumulus along
the ridge tops of the Steens Mountains and the western rim of the
Snake River Valley. Several intra-cloud flashes have also been noted
in these areas suggesting that deeper updrafts are beginning to
coalesce and organize. Parameter space is favorable for a few high
based supercells and organized clusters given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg
and effective shear of 40-50 kt. Storms will likely develop off of
the higher terrain over the next couple of hours and pose a risk for
marginally severe hail and strong downdraft winds given favorable
lapse rates in the low and mid-levels. A weather watch is not
expected due to the relatively sparse coverage projected by CAMS,
but trends will be monitored.
..Lyons/Hart.. 04/30/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PIH...BOI...PDT...
LAT...LON 42491423 42231458 42111527 42041641 42081701 42071771
42151811 42231839 42311866 42331881 42671884 42991883
43361881 43661877 43981863 44381827 44741769 44771709
44751617 44751555 44681490 44481434 43841400 43071405
42491423
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1GLjtH4
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