MD 0515 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 AM CDT Sun May 03 2020
Areas affected...Southeast Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 031105Z - 031330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat should continue for a few
more hours this morning across southeast Kansas. The threat should
remain marginal and weather watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing
across south-central Kansas this morning. This convection is being
supported by a shortwave trough moving through the central Plains,
evident on water vapor imagery. Also, warm advection is occurring
over a post-frontal airmass with a 40 to 50 kt low-level jet
analyzed across northern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. The RAP
is showing moderate instablity across much of southeast Kansas with
MUCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This combined with effective
shear of 40 to 45 kt and mid-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km will be
favorable for isolated severe hail. The hail threat should persist
for a few more hours as the convection moves eastward along a
gradient of moderate instability. The wind damage threat should
remain minimal due to the elevated nature of the storms.
..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/03/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38509531 38509631 38349732 37879799 37569815 37329808
37049754 36999609 37099484 37639444 38369472 38509531
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3aTuPyQ
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