MD 0516 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0516
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Sun May 03 2020
Areas affected...Southwest and South-central Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 031258Z - 031530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat will likely affect parts of
southwestern Missouri over the next couple of hours, and possibly
reach south-central Missouri later this morning. A potential may
also exist for strong wind gusts. Weather watch can't be ruled out
at this time.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front from
northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri. A line of strong to
severe thunderstorms is ongoing to the north of the boundary in
southeast Kansas. This line is located along a gradient of moderate
instability with the RAP showing an east to west corridor of MUCAPE
in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings from
southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri this morning show effective
shear of 35 to 45 kt with steep mid-level lapse rates. This may be
enough to continue a severe threat as the line moves eastward into
southwest Missouri over the next few hours. There is some
uncertainty concerning the longevity of the convection. To the east
across southern Missouri, effective shear is a bit weaker and lapse
rates are slightly less steep. This may help keep the severe threat
isolated. Even so, the severe threat will continue to be monitored
for possible watch issuance.
..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/03/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38509531 38509631 38349732 37879799 37569815 37329808
37049754 36999609 37099484 37639444 38369472 38509531
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