SPC MD 527

MD 0527 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA…NORTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS…FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

Mesoscale Discussion 0527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 AM CDT Mon May 04 2020

Areas affected...Southern Nebraska...Northern and Eastern
Kansas...Far Southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 041050Z - 041145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms associated with large hail and
isolated wind damage appear likely to develop across parts of the
central Plains this morning. The severe threat may also affect parts
of southwest Missouri. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1002 mb low over
far southeast Colorado with low-level moisture maximized to the
southeast of the low in Oklahoma. Low-level moisture lessens with
northward extent across southern and central Kansas. The
distribution of instability is similar to that of low-level
moisture, with MUCAPE maximized near 3500 J/kg in Oklahoma. A
gradient of instability is present in central and southeast Kansas
near an elevated warm front. Short-term model forecasts develop a
northwest to southeast band of thunderstorms just after daybreak
along the gradient of instability. Initially, the storms will be
elevated. Strong effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates
will be favorable for supercells with large hail. As surface
temperatures warm, the chance for surface-based thunderstorms will
increase, making wind damage a possibility. As the exact corridor
with the greatest severe threat becomes more certain, weather watch
issuance will likely be needed across parts of the central Plains to
the Ozarks this morning.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 05/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
GLD...

LAT...LON   36889497 36889396 37979380 39479625 40469820 40519904
            40259947 39399968 38009755 36889497 

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