MD 0528 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MO…EASTERN OK…AND WESTERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0528
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 AM CDT Mon May 04 2020
Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KS into
western/southern MO...eastern OK...and western AR
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161...
Valid 041400Z - 041530Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161
continues.
SUMMARY...The greatest short-term severe hail threat should focus
across parts of eastern KS into western MO. Isolated severe wind
gusts are possible too. Additional storms that have formed over
eastern OK may require watch issuance into parts of northern AR if
they continue to increase in coverage and intensity.
DISCUSSION...Several severe hail producing supercells elevated above
a low-level inversion continue across parts of central/eastern KS
this morning. Very steep mid-level lapse rates observed by the 12Z
DDC sounding have overspread this region along with a strong
south-southwesterly low-level jet evident from the KICT VWP. Current
expectations are for these elevated supercells to continue moving
east-southeastward along an instability gradient across eastern KS
into western MO. Large hail, generally in the 1-2 inch diameter
range, should continue to be the main threat in the short term. But,
a couple instances of even larger hail up to 2.75 inches in diameter
have already occurred given a favorable storm mode, steep mid-level
lapse rates, and 50-60+ kt of effective bulk shear. Isolated severe
wind gusts may also become a greater concern later this morning as
diurnal heating acts to erode a low-level stable layer and some
clustering of the ongoing storms occurs.
Farther south, additional elevated storms have formed over far
northeastern OK in a similar regime, but with even more MUCAPE
present compared to locations farther north (upwards of 2000-3000
J/kg). This activity should develop into parts of far southern MO
and perhaps northwestern AR over the next couple of hours. Depending
on storm coverage, intensity, and motion, an additional Severe
Thunderstorm Watch may be warranted for parts of northern AR.
..Gleason.. 05/04/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 39879784 39709530 39079389 36769240 36139252 35719312
35389391 35339482 35899490 36479521 37079588 37869592
38229753 38929788 39499820 39879784
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1AGyvvq
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