MD 0529 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161…162… FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS INTO MO AND NORTHERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CDT Mon May 04 2020
Areas affected...Portions of eastern KS into MO and northern AR
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161...162...
Valid 041538Z - 041715Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161, 162
continues.
SUMMARY...Both a large hail and severe/damaging wind threat will
continue through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Storms continue late this morning across parts of
eastern KS into western MO and far northwestern AR in association
with an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the central Plains and
pronounced southerly low-level warm advection. Numerous instances of
large hail have occurred, along with some measured severe winds and
related damage. Current expectations are for the ongoing cluster in
the vicinity of Topeka, KS at 1530Z to continue east-southeastward
along an instability gradient/warm front for at least the next
couple of hours. The main threat with this small cluster will likely
become scattered severe/damaging winds, some of which have already
been estimated and measured between 70-80 mph. Isolated large hail
also remains possible, especially with a supercell on the
southwestern flank of the cluster.
Ongoing supercells moving into western MO and far northern AR are
also beginning to merge and interact with one another. Given
sufficient buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear, large hail
generally between 1-2 inches in diameter should remain a concern in
the short term. By the early afternoon and with continued cell
mergers/interactions, these storms may also have a tendency to form
into one or more bowing clusters moving east-southeastward along a
warm front across parts of central/southern MO and northern AR. If
this occurs, then damaging winds would likely become a greater
threat.
..Gleason.. 05/04/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...
ICT...
LAT...LON 38349662 39309605 39309379 38309212 37509117 36459072
35909081 35429111 35399217 35699342 36019405 36339434
37009454 37109471 37589593 38349662
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1l3Pq5d
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