MD 0554 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0554 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Mon May 06 2019 Areas affected...Parts of southern Nebraska and north central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 061816Z - 062015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...At least some increase in severe hail potential appears possible through 3-4 PM CDT. It remains unclear whether this will require a severe weather watch, but trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection has been supporting scattered thunderstorm development the past few hours. This has been generally focused on the northeastern periphery of a plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, which may only continue to slowly shift eastward toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley through this evening. Stronger convection should remain rooted (around 700 mb) above a substantive near surface stable layer, to the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, the latest Rapid Refresh suggests that an influx increasingly moist air aloft, emanating from the warm sector, coupled with strengthening mid-level lift, may contribute to further destabilization and intensifying storm development through 20-21Z. It appears that vertical shear within the convective layer may become sufficient for a couple of supercells, perhaps leading to at least some increase in severe hail potential. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/06/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 41229965 41059817 40439654 39749658 39569674 39139806 39649972 40530034 41229965
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2qcdD0w
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