MD 0559 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139… FOR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Mon May 06 2019
Areas affected...Northeastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 139...
Valid 062208Z - 062345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 139
continues.
SUMMARY...A cluster of supercells will continue to pose a large hail
threat through the afternoon and into the evening. Continued upscale
growth of this storm cluster will increase the damaging wind threat
through the evening.
DISCUSSION...Until the last hour, storms in northeast Kansas were
mostly north of the front with one stronger cell in closer proximity
to the front. In the last hour, additional storms have developed
along the front in Dickinson County, Kansas. These storms have
remained mostly on the cool side of the front up to this point
suggesting they are likely slightly elevated with primarily a large
hail threat. The 20Z TOP sounding modified for near storms
conditions of 78/62 in Salina, KS shows MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and
30 knots of effective shear. This will continue to support supercell
structures and mid-level lapse rates around 8 to 8.5 C/km will aid
in the large hail threat.
Shear vector orientation would suggest some of these storms may be
able to move southward off of the front and become more surface
based. The TWX VWP shows weak winds in the lowest 1.5 to 2km
however, low-level turning is significant enough to support a brief
tornado threat with any of the storms which can remain on the warm
side of the front for the time they remain discrete.
Eventually storms are expected to grow upscale into an MCS which
will move southeastward along the instability gradient. By this
time, the severe weather threat will likely shift toward damaging
wind across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
..Bentley.. 05/06/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 40009718 40019583 39869523 39149461 38489459 38139471
37909511 37949589 38119682 38539771 38779805 39079800
39629727 40009718
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2JjVpXS
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