MD 0561 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 140… FOR EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 PM CDT Mon May 06 2019
Areas affected...Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri
Concerning...Tornado Watch 140...
Valid 070026Z - 070200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 140 continues.
SUMMARY...A developing MCS is expected to move southeastward with a
damaging wind threat through the evening and into the overnight
hours. In addition, isolated hail and a few tornadoes are possible.
DISCUSSION...Considerable convective development has occurred over
the last hour in east-central Kansas as richer low-level moisture
(depicted by the agitated cumulus field in central Kansas) advected
northward and interacted with ongoing storms/outflow boundaries.
These numerous storms which have developed will likely aid cold-pool
development over the next hour or two. By later this evening, a
forward propagating MCS is expected in southeast Kansas and into far
western Missouri as these storms congeal and organize. Very steep
mid-level lapse rates (8 to 9 C/km per regional 00Z RAOBs) will
support some large hail threat, but the primary threat will likely
be damaging winds. The apex of this eventual bowing segment is
expected to track along the instability gradient which can clearly
be seen on visible satellite imagery extending from Lyon county, KS
southeastward to Cherokee county.
A brief tornado or two will also be possible in the short term (with
more supercellular activity) and also along the bowing segment as it
moves southeast.
A downstream watch may eventually be needed for portions of
southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri ahead of this MCS.
..Bentley.. 05/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38919663 39129561 39039467 38489420 37799404 37199455
36909551 36929642 37539741 37949783 38619809 38949785
38919663
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2H5yFJw
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