MD 0569 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 132… FOR SOUTHWEST IOWA…CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS…NORTHWEST MISSOURI…SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018
Areas affected...Southwest Iowa...Central and Northeast
Kansas...Northwest Missouri...Southeast Nebraska
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132...
Valid 292204Z - 300000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132
continues.
SUMMARY...Storms near the eastern periphery of WW 132 will pose a
severe wind and hail threat, but will likely decrease in intensity
as they move east. Storms will move into WW 132 from the west later
this evening. In the short term, southwestern counties will have a
tornado threat with ongoing supercells near Dodge City, KS. As the
evening progresses, storms will continue east and bring with them a
greater risk for severe wind gusts and hail.
DISCUSSION...Storms that fired along an outflow boundary in eastern
Kansas continue near the eastern boundary of WW 132. A storm east of
Wichita has shown a persistent MRMS MESH core of 1 inch. KICT VAD
profile shows 0-6 km shear values of 45-50 kts and RAP analysis
shows MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. Shear and instability
generally decrease from west to east within the discussion area so
the expectation is that the most eastern storms will decrease in
intensity as they progress east. The main threat will be from storms
approaching from the west. Currently, supercell storms near DDC are
ongoing and have exhibited strong rotation on radar. The western
storms are expected to congeal into a line with time. Severe wind
gusts and hail will the the primary threats through the evening.
..Wendt.. 05/29/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 41149583 41089461 40739466 39889516 39019575 38359597
37989648 37899766 37709873 37589958 37510026 37880029
38559914 38659896 38909852 39729793 40629708 41189631
41149583
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2J2uL2s
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