MD 0570 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0570
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Tue May 07 2019
Areas affected...Southeastern Kansas and adjacent portions of
northern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 071911Z - 072115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...An evolving cluster of storms may strengthen and become
better organized through 3-5 PM CDT, possible becoming accompanied
by increasing potential for strong surface gusts approaching severe
limits. It is not certain that a watch will be needed, but trends
will continue to be monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...A sustained cluster of thunderstorms to the
west/northwest of Wichita has been supported by large-scale ascent
associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, to the cool
side of the stalled surface frontal zone. This appears close enough
to the front that continuing inflow of seasonably moist and
destabilizing air from the warm sector may maintain activity and
contribute to substantial further intensification through mid to
late afternoon.
As this occurs, there appears potential for a gradually
strengthening surface cold pool, coupled with at least modest shear
in the convective layer, to contribute to the evolution of a better
organized mesoscale convective system, with increasing potential for
strong surface gusts. Despite being embedded within rather weak
(less than 20 kt) west-southwesterly ambient mean flow, storm-scale
process could lead to peak gusts at least approaching severe limits.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 38369707 38769580 38429489 37099494 36679724 36759836
37499888 38369707
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2H6T2pA
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