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SPC MD 581

MD 0581 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MO…FAR EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR

MD 0581 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0581
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020

Areas affected...portions of western MO...far eastern KS/northeast
OK and northwest AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 141841Z - 142045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon. The most intense cells could produce large hail and
locally damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...A deepening CU field is evident across the region
beneath scattered midlevel cloudiness associated with a couple of
MCVs migrating across western MO and northeast OK. Surface dewpoints
have increased to the mid to upper 60s F across most of the
discussion area beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (7-7.5
C/km). This has resulted in moderate MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg
per 17z Mesoanalysis and 18z TOP RAOB. As temperatures continue to
to warm into the upper 70s F, weak MLCIN will rapidly erode. Forcing
across the region is modest, however, the aforementioned MCVs could
aid in otherwise diurnally-driven convective initiation in the next
couple of hours. Thunderstorm clusters will be the preferred storm
mode given marginal effective shear (25-35 kt), but moderate
instability and steep lapse rates should compensate somewhat,
allowing for at least a few briefly strong to severe thunderstorms
capable of large hail and locally damaging gusts. Trends will be
monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.

..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/14/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON   35519325 35609411 36139459 37579470 38179458 38549431
            38759372 38819335 38819282 38699237 38509208 38199191
            37899182 36989171 36569179 36039200 35639249 35569296
            35519325 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3dJv9lr

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