MD 0584 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KS…NORTHERN MO AND FAR SOUTHERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0584
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020
Areas affected...northeast KS...northern MO and far southern IA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 142055Z - 142230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail are expected to develop in the next couple hours. A watch
will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...A broad CU field is slowly increasing in vertical
development ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary extending from a
surface low over central KS northeastward through southern IA.
Modified 19z RAP soundings indicate MLCIN has likely eroded as area
temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s and low 80s F. Mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints reside across the discussion area with
midlevel lapse rates around 7-8 C/km, resulting in MLCAPE around
1500-2500 J/kg. Water vapor imagery, in conjunction with an 18z RAOB
from TOP and forecast soundings, indicate some midlevel subsidence
could be deterring convective initiation in the short-term,
especially given modest forcing across the region.
Nevertheless, thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next
couple of hours just ahead of the surface boundary. Recent VWP data
from both EAX and DMX indicate a belt of stronger midlevel
southwesterly flow over the area, with effective shear around 25-40
kt. This should be sufficient to maintain organized clusters of
storms, capable of strong gusts and hail initially. Low level shear
is rather weak, but any cell along the frontal boundary will
experience enhanced SRH and a tornado or two can not be ruled out.
A low level jet is expected to increase during the evening, and some
upscale growth is expected. Should an organized line of storms
develop, this could increase the risk for damaging gusts as
convection shifts east/southeast across eastern KS and MO. Trends
are being monitored and a watch will likely be needed by late this
afternoon.
..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/14/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 38719664 39319671 39999626 40659516 41079412 41199343
41279285 41289215 41029176 40529159 40119160 39899193
39489302 38889500 38499628 38719664
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2Axu2ax
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