MD 0586 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 182… FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS…NORTHWEST MISSOURI…SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0586
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020
Areas affected...Eastern and Southern Kansas...Northwest
Missouri...Southern Iowa
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...
Valid 142301Z - 150100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and wind damage will likely
increase over the next couple of hours from northwest Missouri
southwestward into northeast Kansas. A brief tornado or two can not
be ruled out. An isolated and more conditional severe threat may
also develop to the southwest of WW 182.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front from
southwest Iowa extending southwestward into central Kansas. A moist
airmass is present ahead of the front with surface dewpoints
generally in the mid 60s F. A surface trough is located ahead of the
front from southern Iowa into northeast Kansas, along which strong
thunderstorms are developing at this time. The RAP is analyzing a
corridor of moderate to strong instability along the surface trough
with MLCAPE generally in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The strongest
deep-layer shear is analyzed across far northwest Missouri and
southern Iowa where supercells with large hail will be possible. A
brief tornado could occur in this area especially as low-level shear
gradually increases this evening. Further to the southwest into
eastern Kansas, deep-layer shear is not quite as strong. However,
MLCAPE is estimated in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range. This combined
with steepening low-level lapse rates will make wind damage a
possibility as a broken line of storms develops along the surface
trough over the next few hours. Large hail will be possible with the
more intense cores.
Southwest of WW 182, very strong instabiity is analyzed with MLCAPE
in the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range. The RAP has 0-6 km shear in the 30
to 40 kt range and the Wichita WSR-88D VWP shows veering winds with
height in the lowest 3 km AGL. If low-level convergence can become
strong enough, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could develop
in southern Kansas. The environment would support large hail and
wind damage. This severe potential is conditional upon cell
initiation.
..Broyles.. 05/14/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39389578 38699651 37979712 37659675 37649594 38709494
40789268 41069295 41139408 40369492 39389578
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3dPzyng
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