MD 0593 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183…184… FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA…NORTHERN AND WESTERN ILLINOIS…CENTRAL MISSOURI…AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0593
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020
Areas affected...northwest Indiana...northern and western
Illinois...central Missouri...and southeast Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 183...184...
Valid 150606Z - 150800Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 183, 184
continues.
SUMMARY...Local risk for severe storms continues, with greatest
short-term risk likely to exist over central Missouri over the next
1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of severe storms
extending from near Chicago southwestward to western Missouri, and
then west-southwestward from there across southeastern Kansas. The
storms are occurring near/ahead of the surface cold front, aided by
an axis of pre-frontal warm-sector mixed-layer CAPE ranging from
around 500 J/kg in the Chicago area, to 1500 to 2500 J/kg over
southeastern Kansas.
Storms across northern portions of the discussion area -- i.e. in
and near soon-to-expire WW 183 -- should continue to gradually
weaken, as they continue shifting eastward into a more stable/capped
airmass into southern lower Michigan and Indiana. Meanwhile, storms
farther to the southwest will likely continue for several hours,
aided by low-level warm advection assocaited with a 50 kt
southwesterly low-level jet ahead of the surface front.
The greatest short-term severe risk -- in the form of damaging winds
-- appears likely to exist across central Missouri. Storms appear
likely to evolve into a bowing band, and shift across central
Missouri through an amply unstable (1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer
CAPE) environment -- resulting in a more focused corridor for
damaging-wind potential. As storms approach eastern portions of WW
184 over the next 1-2 hours, local areal WW extensions, or a new
severe thunderstorm watch, may be required.
..Goss.. 05/15/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA...
TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 41488676 40868725 39818854 38259017 37489247 36969478
37079736 37609745 38229561 38339469 39639316 40569068
41069050 41488676
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2zCq7Zm
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