MD 0061 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK…NEW JERSEY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0061 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Wed Jan 30 2019 Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania into southeastern New York...New Jersey and adjacent portions of the northern Mid Atlantic and southern New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 301610Z - 302015Z SUMMARY...A brief burst of heavy snow, strong wind gusts and reduced visibilities may accompany the passage of a cold front this afternoon, perhaps affecting much of the Greater New York City metropolitan area during the 2-4 PM EST time frame. DISCUSSION...The leading edge of stronger lower tropospheric cooling (centered around 850 mb...where temps falling from roughly -15 to -30C), now surging east of the Allegheny Mountains, is forecast to continue eastward into western New England and the northern Mid Atlantic region through 20-22Z. Model forecast soundings suggest that is being accompanied by increasing boundary layer destabilization supportive of deepening convective development, with tops likely to approach 10,000+ feet, particularly across parts of eastern Pennsylvania and central/northern New Jersey into southeastern New York late this afternoon. Frontogenetic forcing appears to be supporting a narrow, but sustained, evolving band of convection. This is likely being aided by lift within the exit region of a 110-130 kt cyclonic 500 mb jet streak forecast to nose across the northern Mid Atlantic, lower Hudson Valley, and southern New England by late this afternoon. Given the cold thermodynamic profiles, including a layer supportive of large dendritic ice crystal growth, guidance is suggestive that the convection may be accompanied by a burst of heavy snow rates around or in excess of 1 inch per hour. It appears this may last only 15 to 30 minutes at any one location, but it may be accompanied by fairly strong surface wind gusts in excess of 30 kts, and sharply reduced visibilities. ..Kerr.. 01/30/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40187685 41577615 42637568 43557345 42817280 42297262 41427249 40227382 39647578 39647711 40187685
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/MVP7gN
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