MD 0062 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH FL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0062 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 270936Z - 271130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...SOME STRONGER STORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS AROUND 30-50 MILES OFF THE PENINSULA...CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY APPROACH THE COAST OF FAR SOUTHWEST FL IN VICINITY OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY AS OF 415 AM EST/0915Z. THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT THAT DELINEATES A MORE MOISTURE-RICH MARITIME AIR MASS WITH NEAR 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. IN CONJUNCTION WITH WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE/MODEST BUOYANCY ARE MAXIMIZED IN THIS NEAR-COASTAL PART OF THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR WARMING CLOUD TOPS PER INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AS CONVECTION APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. EVEN WITH THESE RECENT TRENDS...GIVEN CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING INLAND...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE PENINSULA AMID A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST AND/OR WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 01/27/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW... LAT...LON 26538203 26868130 26528072 26158039 25338060 24988091 24628197 25498185 25688170 26538203
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/20s7A4N
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