SPC MD 659


MD 0659 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0659
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Thu Jun 07 2018

Areas affected...Central KS...North-central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 070658Z - 070830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and strong winds gusts will
likely persist across central KS for the next several hours and a
watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed rapidly along the eastern
edge of the low-level jet over the past hour or so. In this area,
steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to moderate to strong
instability and warm-air advection is lifting parcels to their LFC.

Additionally, southeastward progressing MCS moving through northwest
KS has begun to interact with the newly developed warm-air advection
storms. Expectation is for this storm interact to result in
increased forward propagation into central KS and a higher
probability for damaging wind gusts.

Initially disorganized cluster across southwest KS has become
increasingly more organized over the past hour. As a result, the
reflectivity gradient along the leading edge has become
significantly sharper as storms have increased in strength.
Furthermore, recent velocity data from KDDC reveals strong westerly
winds in the wake of the system, indicative of a strong rear-inflow
jet. MCS strengthening and maintenance is anticipated as this system
continues eastward across south-central KS. Some development
southward into north-central OK is possible.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   37890014 39780030 39959786 39179729 36359748 36980024

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