MD 0659 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL KS…NORTH-CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0659 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Jun 07 2018 Areas affected...Central KS...North-central OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 070658Z - 070830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and strong winds gusts will likely persist across central KS for the next several hours and a watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed rapidly along the eastern edge of the low-level jet over the past hour or so. In this area, steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to moderate to strong instability and warm-air advection is lifting parcels to their LFC. Additionally, southeastward progressing MCS moving through northwest KS has begun to interact with the newly developed warm-air advection storms. Expectation is for this storm interact to result in increased forward propagation into central KS and a higher probability for damaging wind gusts. Initially disorganized cluster across southwest KS has become increasingly more organized over the past hour. As a result, the reflectivity gradient along the leading edge has become significantly sharper as storms have increased in strength. Furthermore, recent velocity data from KDDC reveals strong westerly winds in the wake of the system, indicative of a strong rear-inflow jet. MCS strengthening and maintenance is anticipated as this system continues eastward across south-central KS. Some development southward into north-central OK is possible. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/07/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 37890014 39780030 39959786 39179729 36359748 36980024 37890014
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2JqbFUe
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