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SPC MD 701

MD 0701 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS

MD 0701 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0701
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 240451Z - 240645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH POSSIBLE INTO
AN MCS.  GREATEST SEVERE-WEATHER THREATS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY AND SOUTH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
KS/NEB BORDER...AND SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG A WIND SHIFT THROUGH TREGO
AND GOVE COUNTIES.  MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
CLOUD-TOP COOLING WITH THESE STORMS AND ATTENDANT TO CU/MODERATE CU
FORMING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SCOTT COUNTY KS TO KIOWA COUNTY CO.
THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ATTENDANT TO AN INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS.  THIS JET WILL
MAINTAIN A FEED OF MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
1500-3000 J PER KG/...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
SUPPORTS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STORMS.  LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER/ AND
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  

00Z NSSL-WRF 4 KM/03Z ESRL-HRRR AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
OPERATIONAL HRRR HAVE INDICATED A SCENARIO FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST AND/OR WESTERN KS...WITH
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS INTO CENTRAL KS.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38830127 39779943 39889778 38709689 37509673 37169774
            37399956 38200125 38830127 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/25j7hza

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