MD 0701 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0701 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 240451Z - 240645Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH POSSIBLE INTO AN MCS. GREATEST SEVERE-WEATHER THREATS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY AND SOUTH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL KS/NEB BORDER...AND SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG A WIND SHIFT THROUGH TREGO AND GOVE COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLOUD-TOP COOLING WITH THESE STORMS AND ATTENDANT TO CU/MODERATE CU FORMING TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SCOTT COUNTY KS TO KIOWA COUNTY CO. THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ATTENDANT TO AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS. THIS JET WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 1500-3000 J PER KG/...WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT SUPPORTS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS. LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER/ AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. 00Z NSSL-WRF 4 KM/03Z ESRL-HRRR AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL HRRR HAVE INDICATED A SCENARIO FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST AND/OR WESTERN KS...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS INTO CENTRAL KS. ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38830127 39779943 39889778 38709689 37509673 37169774 37399956 38200125 38830127
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/25j7hza
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