MD 0704 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN KANSAS…FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…SOUTHWEST IOWA…AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0704 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020 Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Far southeast Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...and northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 241813Z - 241945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected in the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and composite radar imagery as well as 18Z surface observations show a well pronounced MCV just north of Wichita. The area east and northeast of the this MCV has destabilized with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCIN has mostly eroded across this region with MLCAPE ranging from 1000 to 2500 J/kg with the greatest instability in northern Missouri. Therefore, more widespread storm development is expected in the next 1 to 2 hours in the vicinity of the MCV and the outflow boundaries in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. Evidence of a compact mid-level circulation with enhanced flow can be seen on the ICT and TWX VWP where mid-level winds are 40 knots out of the west-southwest and 50 knots out of the southeast respectively. This stronger flow will aid in storm organization later this afternoon as the airmass ahead and east of this MCV continues to destabilize and more robust updraft development begins. Effective shear will support some supercell storm modes with a threat for both large hail and damaging winds. In addition, there is a conditional tornado threat in the vicinity of the outflow boundaries and where surface winds can remain backed ahead and east of the MCV. While low-level flow isn't all that strong, there will be some low-level turning where winds remain backed and the EAX VWP shows a belt of 30 knot southwesterly winds between 2-3 km suggesting some speed shear in this vicinity. ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/24/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38169486 38339620 38639693 39309723 40209681 41129597 41689551 42069387 41819293 40639279 40049299 39289341 38259423 38169486
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2JuNgk6
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