MD 0710 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR/FAR WESTERN TN/EASTERN OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0505 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR/FAR WESTERN TN/EASTERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 242205Z - 250030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY /FAR SOUTHEAST MO AND NORTHEAST AR/ AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY /NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL AR/ OF THE ORGANIZED EASTWARD-MOVING MCS WHICH ENCOMPASSES SOUTHEAST MO TO NORTHERN AR. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA FROM CENTRAL AR INTO FAR EASTERN OK MAY NEED AN UPGRADE TO GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND A SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY. WW ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED. DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN MCS WITH AN EMBEDDED MCV TRACKING TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS COMPLEX...WHICH HAS REMAINED THE MOST ACTIVE WITH NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ACROSS NORTHERN AR. DESPITE EARLIER VWP AT SPRINGFIELD MO SHOWING A VEER-BACK-VEER WIND PROFILE WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE WIND FIELDS /POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE MCV CIRCULATION/ APPEAR TO BE RESULTING IN STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT FROM EASTERN OK TO FAR WESTERN TN. MEANWHILE... S/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS MCS WITH A RATHER MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /GIVEN MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/. BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE GENERALLY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AR...SUGGESTING EMBEDDED LINEAR STRUCTURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE...THOUGH SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL OK...WITH THE EXPANDING AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS LOCATED IN NORTHWEST AR. THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO THE STRONGER INFLOW OF MOIST AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. STORMS MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHEAST MO AND NORTHEAST AR SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO FAR WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN. ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 34519136 34319195 34249274 34409359 34669433 34979466 35459467 35839309 36049213 36209156 36379077 36029025 35479018 35199026 34719079 34519136
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1s89wDA
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