MD 0711 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0711
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020
Areas affected...kansas into southern Nebraska.
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 242214Z - 242345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
damaging winds are likely this evening. A weather watch is likely
needed soon.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are forming across portions of Kansas and
Nebraska on a stationary/ cold front ahead of diffuse dryline.
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is present across the warm sector which
will support robust updrafts. Mid-level flow is relatively weak, and
displaced from the main warm sector. However, 25-35 kt of effective
shear will still support storm organization in a mixed mode of
supercells and line segments. An outflow boundary from previous
convection may also serve as a focus for further storm development
across central Kansas. A weather watch will likely be issued
shortly.
..Lyons.. 05/24/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37850064 38210063 38320042 38560016 38999990 39319976
39669969 40019963 40289936 40459899 40619863 40799809
40839769 40609743 39899741 39229739 38519732 37849738
37039743 37049772 37080049 37380049 37850064
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1c6l9Ci
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