MD 0712 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 173… FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS…NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0712 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018 Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Northern Oklahoma...Western Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173... Valid 120533Z - 120730Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat ongoing in eastern Kansas will likely continue for several more hours. Large hail and wind damage can be expected with the stronger thunderstorms associated with the MCS. Additional watch issuance may be needed across southeast Kansas as the expiration of WW 173 takes place at 1 am CDT. The threat is expected to become marginal across northern Oklahoma where a weather watch probably will not be needed. DISCUSSION...A linear MCS is currently moving southeastward into a strongly unstable airmass across eastern Kansas and western Missouri where the RAP is showing MLCAPE values in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. This will likely fuel the MCS for several more hours as it moves southeastward into the stronger instability. Although deep-layer shear on regional WSR-88D VWPs is only around 30 kt, 850 mb flow will be maintained or gradually strengthen across southeast Kansas over the next few hours. This along with the instability and shear will likely maintain a severe threat with the stronger thunderstorms. Large hail will be most likely with lingering supercells. Wind damage will also be possible along the leading edge of the MCS. The severe threat is expected to become marginal as the storms reach northern Oklahoma and southwest Missouri later tonight. ..Broyles/Thompson.. 06/12/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 38789366 38889493 38779566 38309664 37959774 37809815 37579840 36999855 36309846 35809822 35489788 36349569 36829401 37339299 38449305 38789366
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