SPC MD 718

MD 0718 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL…NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0718
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 250239Z - 250445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
SUSTAINED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST OK
THROUGH LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS
SEVERE-WEATHER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT WATCH
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...MID-EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL
OK MCS EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF FSM WESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST HUGHES
COUNTY AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN LINCOLN TO ALFALFA
COUNTIES.  GIVEN COOLING OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL
OK...MODIFIED 00Z OUN SOUNDING SUGGESTS THE RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OK COUNTIES OF OKLAHOMA...CLEVELAND...AND
POTTAWATOMIE IS LIKELY ELEVATED.  THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES /9 C/KM PER THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING/ COMBINED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ MAINTAINING AN INFLOW OF MODERATELY
STRONG INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J PER KG/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
40-45 KT FAVORS LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THIS ENVIRONMENT
IS VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION AS DEPICTED BY
THE TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND STRONG COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITH THE
INITIAL ELEVATED STORMS.  AS THE CURRENT STORMS MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST...THEY WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /ABOVE A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NORTHEAST
EXTENT/.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34549649 35549761 36099801 36559802 36749759 36939703
            36679620 36269589 35949577 35559560 35099559 34539620
            34549649 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1YXwGHk