MD 0761 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN IDAHO…FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA…AND WESTERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 0761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Fri May 29 2020
Areas affected...Eastern Idaho...far southwest Montana...and western
Wyoming
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 292012Z - 292215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will pose a risk for severe wind
into the early evening hours. Due to the isolated nature of the
threat, a watch is not likely.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite trends over the past hour
have shown a gradual increase in convective activity across
southeast ID and western WY as well as developing cumulus across
central ID. Although instability continues to increase via
insolation, limited low and mid-level moisture along with weak
forcing for ascent have largely stunted convective maturation thus
far. An increase in thunderstorm activity is possible as low-level
parcels continue to warm closer to their convective temperatures
through late afternoon and ridge top convergence continues due to
diurnal upslope flow.
If storms can become established in this environment, 25-35 knots of
effective bulk shear across eastern ID into northwest WY, coupled
with 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE, should support one or two strong
thunderstorms. Steep, 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates and a dry 1-2
km sub-cloud layer will pose the potential for downburst winds.
Although deep layer shear is not overly strong, isolated instances
of severe hail will be possible. In the near term, a severe risk is
most likely across southeast ID where convective initiation is
underway. Thunderstorm development will likely hold off for another
1-2 hours further north across central/northeast ID and surrounding
areas. Due to the limited coverage of storms a watch is not likely.
..Moore/Grams.. 05/29/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...
LAT...LON 42141429 43111479 44061491 44911453 45481318 45251124
44820964 44250841 43510770 42670828 42241017 42041146
42141429
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2EpToG3
Be First to Comment