MD 0768 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SE NEB…FAR SRN IA…NRN/CNTRL MO…FAR W-CNTRL IL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE NEB...FAR SRN IA...NRN/CNTRL MO...FAR W-CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 272241Z - 272345Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...SOME ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES. ISOLATED SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS MOVES INTO THE REGION. AIRMASS HERE IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S...AND MLCAPE ABOVE 1000 J PER KG. AREA VAD PROFILES SAMPLED A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE AND BOTH VAD PROFILES AND MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTATION IS FOR SVR COVERAGE TO GENERALLY REMAIN ISOLATED. LIMITED SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED. ..MOSIER/GUYER.. 05/27/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39269020 38749032 38479142 38789371 39329487 40299634 41159591 41029350 40789232 40079063 39269020
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/25ny61w
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