MD 0772 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN OK…FAR NORTHWESTERN AR…FAR SOUTHEAST KS…WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0772 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0941 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017 Areas affected...Eastern OK...Far northwestern AR...Far southeast KS...West-central/southwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 190241Z - 190415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...One or more downstream watches may be need across portions of eastern OK, far northwestern AR, far southeast KS, and west-central/southwest MO as the ongoing convective lines continue eastward. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows several convective lines across eastern KS and eastern/central OK. Convective trends on the line across eastern KS have been down over the past hour or so. Storms within the line may intensify briefly as a result of mergers and/or interaction with the warm front but the general expectation is for predominately sub-severe wind gusts. However, some more cellular development is possible ahead of the line with the overall environment supportive of rotating updrafts capable of severe hail. A watch may be needed downstream to cover these potential severe hazards. Farther south in northeast OK, ongoing supercells appear to have experienced upscale growth with recent radar imagery showing a more eastward storm motion. This developing line may eventually merge with the well-developed line moving across southern OK and continue eastward across the remainder of eastern OK and into western AR. Strengthening low-level flow and ample low-level moisture should allow for a continued severe threat. The northern extent of the threat is somewhat questionable given the current storm motion but portions of southern MO may need a watch and convective trends will be monitored closely. ..Mosier/Hart.. 05/19/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38779502 39719408 38889284 34789381 34609543 38779502
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2qChndm
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