MD 0836 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0836
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020
Areas affected...portions of central into southwest MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 050831Z - 051000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorms watch will be issued across parts
of southwest into central MO. Locally damaging gusts and hail are
possible.
DISCUSSION...An organized line of storms continues to produce severe
gusts and occasional hail across parts of northwest MO and eastern
KS within WW 255. These storms are moving toward the southeast at
around 35 kt. Most recently, a severe gust to 51 kt was measured at
in Shawnee County, KS and 56 kt measured at St. Joseph, MO. Earlier
signs of outflow surging ahead of the southern portions of the
bowing MCS continue across parts of KS, however, redevelopment and
intensification of additional cells near the outflow has been noted
recently as storms approach the KS/MO state line near Kansas City.
Additionally, cloud tops continue to cool in IR satellite loops,
suggesting the MCS may still undergo additional strengthening.
The downstream environment remains supportive of strong gusts with
MLCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg common. While some inhibition
exists, forecast soundings and 00z RAOB from SGF show favorable
thermodynamic profiles for intense downdrafts. Regional VWP data
also continues to show a rear-inflow jet of 50+ kts associated with
the bowing MCS.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/05/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 37019323 36979408 37449476 37949488 38149477 38469417
38859337 39079272 39139215 38779172 37779179 37619191
37319217 37019323
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2MycfCI
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