MD 0862 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0862 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0959 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017 Areas affected...Southern/eastern Kansas into the Missouri Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 271459Z - 271700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...At least one, if not several, severe weather watches are likely today across the area. At the present time, this seems most probable later this afternoon, rather than early. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to develop across and northeast of portions of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, in association with an initial weak impulse within the mid-latitude westerlies, which is expected to progress toward the Upper Midwest through mid to late afternoon. It appears that this arcing band will progress through a narrow corridor of relatively moist air ahead of it, before appreciable heating and destabilization can take place. And northeast of the Des Moines IA/Kirksville Mo areas, near surface inflow is likely to become drier and more stable, which appears to limit severe weather potential. In the wake of this lead activity, an area of enhanced lower/mid tropospheric warm advection is also maintaining convective development across parts of east central and northeast Kansas, on the northern periphery of a plume of very warm, elevated mixed layer air. This forcing is expected to continue to develop southeastward, near and to the west through south of Kansas City into the 18-21Z time. In the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively strong shear, and sizable CAPE even for elevated moist parcels, the risk for at least severe hail may not be negligible, and could possibly increase a bit through early afternoon. However, rapid substantive intensification seems likely to await weakening of inhibition for moist boundary layer parcels, and this seems most probable southeast of the Kansas City metro into the Missouri Ozarks later this afternoon. Some recent new convective development is ongoing across parts of the Missouri Ozarks, near the intersection of an outflow boundary left by prior convection, and an apparent southeastward advancing gravity wave. Similar to convection to the northwest, this activity may persist and continue to slowly increase while developing southeastward along the retreating outflow boundary across southern Missouri. But significant rapid increase accompanied by more prominent severe weather potential will probably require considerable further downstream boundary layer heating and destabilization. ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/27/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 37529811 38289688 38779610 39099468 39599391 40049374 39419277 37879047 36679142 36709384 36909525 36919750 37529811
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2qq6ydl
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