MD 0862 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0862
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0959 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017
Areas affected...Southern/eastern Kansas into the Missouri
Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 271459Z - 271700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...At least one, if not several, severe weather watches are
likely today across the area. At the present time, this seems most
probable later this afternoon, rather than early.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to develop across and
northeast of portions of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, in
association with an initial weak impulse within the mid-latitude
westerlies, which is expected to progress toward the Upper Midwest
through mid to late afternoon. It appears that this arcing band
will progress through a narrow corridor of relatively moist air
ahead of it, before appreciable heating and destabilization can take
place. And northeast of the Des Moines IA/Kirksville Mo areas, near
surface inflow is likely to become drier and more stable, which
appears to limit severe weather potential.
In the wake of this lead activity, an area of enhanced lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection is also maintaining convective
development across parts of east central and northeast Kansas, on
the northern periphery of a plume of very warm, elevated mixed layer
air. This forcing is expected to continue to develop southeastward,
near and to the west through south of Kansas City into the 18-21Z
time. In the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively
strong shear, and sizable CAPE even for elevated moist parcels, the
risk for at least severe hail may not be negligible, and could
possibly increase a bit through early afternoon. However, rapid
substantive intensification seems likely to await weakening of
inhibition for moist boundary layer parcels, and this seems most
probable southeast of the Kansas City metro into the Missouri Ozarks
later this afternoon.
Some recent new convective development is ongoing across parts of
the Missouri Ozarks, near the intersection of an outflow boundary
left by prior convection, and an apparent southeastward advancing
gravity wave. Similar to convection to the northwest, this activity
may persist and continue to slowly increase while developing
southeastward along the retreating outflow boundary across southern
Missouri. But significant rapid increase accompanied by more
prominent severe weather potential will probably require
considerable further downstream boundary layer heating and
destabilization.
..Kerr/Hart.. 05/27/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 37529811 38289688 38779610 39099468 39599391 40049374
39419277 37879047 36679142 36709384 36909525 36919750
37529811
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2qq6ydl
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