MD 0885 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0885
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018
Areas affected...central Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 261301Z - 261500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolate late hail threat may transition to an isolated
wind threat later this morning. The area will be monitored for a
potential watch.
DISCUSSION...This morning's 12Z DDC sounding shows mid-level lapse
rate on the order of 7.5 C/km, with the maximum 2-6 km lapse rate on
the nearing 9 C/km. This, coupled with warm-air advection in the
850-700 millibar layer has contributed to elevated thunderstorms
across western portions of central Kansas. The environment these
thunderstorms are developing in has most-unstable CAPE values
between 1000-2000 J/kg and deep-layer shear on the order of 30-40
knots. As such, these thunderstorms should be capable of posing a
hail threat in the near-term.
Later this morning, as insolation mixes out the nocturnal boundary
layer, steepening low-level lapse rates should increase the
potential for strong thunderstorm outflow. A watch may become
necessary later this morning.
..Marsh/Guyer.. 06/26/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37820011 38960024 39219936 38959678 37919633 37349719
37820011
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