MD 0889 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KS…SOUTHEAST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 0889
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2020
Areas affected...north-central KS...southeast NE
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 091903Z - 092030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Convective initiation is expected around 3pm CDT. A
couple of supercells with an attendant tornado/hail threat will
likely develop later this afternoon. A tornado watch will likely be
needed by 230pm CDT.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
field over north-central KS and southern NE as surface temperatures
rise into the mid to upper 80s. Surface analysis places a boundary
from 20 mi west of RSL to 40 mi northwest of CNK to 40 mi
east-southeast of GRI. KTWX VAD shows low-level veering flow in the
lowest 1-2 km and RAP forecast soundings show sickle-shaped
hodographs in the lowest 8km but some backing aloft. Additionally,
the deepening boundary layer evident in the RAP sounding data
suggests CINH will largely erode during the next 1-2 hours.
Short-term guidance suggests a couple of storms will preferentially
develop near the boundary during the mid-late afternoon with
subsequent development farther southeast over northeast KS/far
southeast NE towards early evening. The tornado risk will probably
focus in the vicinity of the boundary but on the immediate warm
sector side where large CAPE is co-located with ample surface
vorticity. Large to very large hail will be possible with the more
dominant/persistent updrafts.
..Smith/Thompson.. 06/09/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 39769836 40789779 40819699 39409662 38909711 39049796
39199830 39769836
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3f6JGsb
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